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ABSTRACT Thermal performance curves are commonly used to investigate the effects of heat acclimation on thermal tolerance and physiological performance. However, recent work indicates that the metrics of these curves heavily depend on experimental design and may be poor predictors of animal survival during heat events in the field. In intertidal mussels, cardiac thermal performance (CTP) tests have been widely used as indicators of animals' acclimation or acclimatization state, providing two indices of thermal responses: critical temperature (Tcrit; the temperature above which heart rate abruptly declines) and flatline temperature (Tflat; the temperature where heart rate ceases). Despite the wide use of CTP tests, it remains largely unknown how Tcrit and Tflat change within a single individual after heat acclimation, and whether changes in these indices can predict altered survival in the field. Here, we addressed these issues by evaluating changes in CTP indices in the same individuals before and after heat acclimation. For control mussels, merely reaching Tcrit was not lethal, whereas remaining at Tcrit for ≥10 min was lethal. Heat acclimation significantly increased Tcrit only in mussels with an initially low Tcrit (<35°C), but improved their survival time above Tcrit by 20 min on average. Tflat increased by ∼1.6°C with heat acclimation, but it is unlikely that increased Tflat improves survival in the field. In summary, Tcrit and Tflat per se may fall short of providing quantitative indices of thermal tolerance in mussels; instead, a combination of Tcrit and tolerance time at temperatures ≥Tcrit better defines changes in thermal tolerance with heat acclimation. 

To better understand life in the sea, marine scientists must first quantify how individual organisms experience their environment, and then describe how organismal performance depends on that experience. In this review, we first explore marine environmental variation from the perspective of pelagic organisms, the most abundant life forms in the ocean. Generation time, the ability to move relative to the surrounding water (even slowly), and the presence of environmental gradients at all spatial scales play dominant roles in determining the variation experienced by individuals, but this variation remains difficult to quantify. We then use this insight to critically examine current understanding of the environmental physiology of pelagic marine organisms. Physiologists have begun to grapple with the complexity presented by environmental variation, and promising frameworks exist for predicting and/or interpreting the consequences for physiological performance. However, new technology needs to be developed and much difficult empirical work remains, especially in quantifying response times to environmental variation and the interactions among multiple covarying factors. We call on the field of global-change biology to undertake these important challenges. 

Climate change is not only causing steady increases in average global temperatures but also increasing the frequency with which extreme heating events occur. These extreme events may be pivotal in determining the ability of organisms to persist in their current habitats. Thus, it is important to understand how quickly an organism's heat tolerance can be gained and lost relative to the frequency with which extreme heating events occur in the field. We show that the California mussel, Mytilus californianus —a sessile intertidal species that experiences extreme temperature fluctuations and cannot behaviourally thermoregulate—can quickly (in 24–48 h) acquire improved heat tolerance after exposure to a single sublethal heat-stress bout (2 h at 30 or 35°C) and then maintain this improved tolerance for up to three weeks without further exposure to elevated temperatures. This adaptive response improved survival rates by approximately 75% under extreme heat-stress bouts (2 h at 40°C). To interpret these laboratory findings in an ecological context, we evaluated 4 years of mussel body temperatures recorded in the field. The majority (approx. 64%) of consecutive heat-stress bouts were separated by 24–48 h, but several consecutive heat bouts were separated by as much as 22 days. Thus, the ability of M. californianus to maintain improved heat tolerance for up to three weeks after a single sublethal heat-stress bout significantly improves their probability of survival, as approximately 33% of consecutive heat events are separated by 3–22 days. As a sessile animal, mussels likely evolved the capability to rapidly gain and slowly lose heat tolerance to survive the intermittent, and often unpredictable, heat events in the intertidal zone. This adaptive strategy will likely prove beneficial under the extreme heat events predicted with climate change. 

Accelerating shifts in global climate have focused the attention of ecologists and physiologists on extreme environmental events. However, the dynamic process of physiological acclimatization complicates study of these events' consequences. Depending on the range of plasticity and the amplitude and speed of environmental variation, physiology can be either in tune with the surroundings or dangerously out of synch. We implement a modified quantitative approach to identifying extreme events in environmental records, proposing that organisms are stressed by deviations of the environment from the current level of acclimatization, rather than by the environment's absolute state. This approach facilitates an unambiguous null model for the consequences of environmental variation, identifying a unique subset of events as ‘extremes’. Specifically, it allows one to examine how both the temporal extent (the acclimatization window) and type of an environmental signal affect the magnitude and timing of extreme environmental events. For example, if physiology responds to the moving average of past conditions, a longer acclimatization window generally results in greater imposed stress. If instead physiology responds to historical maxima, longer acclimatization windows reduce imposed stress, albeit perhaps at greater constitutive cost. This approach should be further informed and tested with empirical experiments addressing the history-dependent nature of acclimatization. 

As Earth’s climate warms, plants and animals are likely to encounter increased frequency and severity of extreme thermal events, and the ensuing destruction is likely to play an important role in structuring ecological communities. However, accurate prediction of the population-scale consequences of extreme thermal events requires detailed knowledge of the small-scale interaction between individual organisms and their thermal environment. In this study I propose a simple model that allows one to explore how individual-to-individual variation in body temperature and thermal physiology determines what fraction of a population will be killed by an extreme thermal event. The model takes into account the possibility that each individual plant or animal can respond to an event by adjusting its thermal tolerance in proportion to the stress it encounters. When thermal stress is relatively mild, the model shows that a graded physiological response of this sort leads to increased survivorship. However, the model predicts that in more severe events a proportional induced defense can actually reduce survivorship, a counterintuitive possibility that is not predicted by standard theory. The model can easily be tailored to different species and thermal environments to provide an estimate of when, where and how physiology can buffer the effects of climate warming.